Seahawks over Patriots — 63%
Seattle is the safer side for me. The Seahawks have the stronger defense and overall roster, while New England faces a tough matchup against a defense that can pressure the quarterback and limit big plays. I think rookie Jadarian Price will have an outstanding first game, potentially getting his first rushing touchdown in this game by the end of the first quarter. I also think Sam Darnold will have a day against the patriot defense once again, throwing for 210+ yards this game.
Rams over 49ers — 64%
Los Angeles is favored by the market, and I agree. The Rams have more proven talent across the roster and should have enough offensively to handle San Francisco. With Christian McCaffrey still dealing with injury, I think it's a no brainer. Although I think Brock Purdy will blossom more this season once everyone is healthy, the Niners just have to many starters questionable/ dealing with injury. For this reason I think Mathew Stafford will dominate using his weapons Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Throwing for 280+ yards in his season opener. I also think Colby Parkinson will score a touchdown that day as well.
Chargers over Cardinals — 82%
This is my strongest pick. Los Angeles has the clear roster advantage on both sides of the ball and should control the game. I expect the Chargers to take care of business.
Steelers over Falcons — 63%
Pittsburgh has the defensive advantage and should be able to make Atlanta work for every possession. The market slightly favors Pittsburgh, and I agree with it.
Ravens over Colts — 62%
Baltimore has the stronger overall roster and should be able to control the game with its run game and defense. I expect a competitive game, but the Ravens have more ways to win.
Bills over Texans — 52%
This is one of the closest games on the board. Buffalo gets my pick because of Josh Allen and the advantage he gives the Bills in a close game. At 52%, this is a slight edge rather than a strong pick. I think that the Bills have always produced against the Texans in the past years. And there offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael makes a lot of right calls and could take advantage of the Texans defense and pick them apart, although arguably the Texans have one of the better if not the best well-rounded defenses in the league (currently ranked #1). I do think this will be a high output game, leading to Josh Allen for a rushing touchdown if he is ever inside the red zone.
Bears over Panthers — 60%
Chicago is one of my biggest differences from the market. The Bears have the better overall roster and more upside on both sides of the ball. I expect them to win despite the market being less confident in Chicago.
Jaguars over Browns — 78%
Jacksonville is one of the biggest favorites of the week, and I agree. The Jaguars have the better offense and enough defensive talent to control this matchup.
Cowboys over Giants — 61%
Dallas has more proven offensive talent and should have the advantage in a close game. The Giants can make this competitive, but I expect the Cowboys to make enough plays to win.
Packers over Vikings — 47%
This is my upset pick. Minnesota is favored by the market, but I believe Green Bay has enough talent to win outright. At 47%, it is one of my riskiest picks, but it is also one of the spots where I see the most value.
Lions over Saints — 75%
Detroit is one of my strongest picks. The Lions have the better roster on both sides of the ball, and I expect their offense to create problems for New Orleans throughout the game. I think this game will be a blood bath, complete domination from the Lions. I think Drew Petzing will make a lot of great calls to start the season off hot. Jared Goff, I expect him to throw for 300+ yards in this season opener. Using his talented WR room with Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, & Amon-Ra St. Brown. I think each will have a highlight play this game. I think TeSlaa will score an early touchdown late of the first, or early into the second quarter. We will continue utilizing Jahmyr Gibbs for his running aspects. I think he will also score a touchdown this game as well and rush for 100+ yards.
Eagles over Commanders — 68%
Philadelphia has the more complete roster and should have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Washington has enough talent to keep the game close, but I trust Philadelphia more in the key moments.
Final Take
My strongest Week 1 picks are Chargers, Jaguars, and Lions. My biggest market disagreements are Bears over Panthers and Packers over Vikings.
The market can identify the obvious favorites, but the best opportunities often come from the games where my probability differs from the current numbers.